Demographic and Social Change in Australia and Comparative Countries

Low Fertility: Causes, Consequences and Remedies
Peter McDonald
This on-going program of research investigates the emergence of low (under 2.1 births per woman) and very low (under 1.5 births per woman) fertility rates. The research explores the causes of low fertility concentrating on institutional explanations. It also examines the consequences of low fertility for future labour supply and the implications for economies of dwindling labour supply in the context of rapid population ageing. Finally, the research considers the range of policy options that might be employed to increase fertility or sustain it at relatively high levels.

Australian Demographic Trends

The Emergence of Low Fertility in Australia
Peter McDonald and Rebecca Kippen
Australian Census Analytical Program
Australian census data are used to reconstruct detailed information on birth and birth rates in Australia from 1981 to the present time. For every calendar year since 1981, the project has produced birth rates and estimates of the female population simultaneously by single year of age of mother, single parity and single years of duration since the previous birth. The project has produced a new measure of fertility called the Intrinsic Total Fertility Rate. The ITFR controls simultaneously for the effects of age, parity and duration since the previous birth. This is a better measure of the underlying level of fertility than the conventional Total Fertility Rate that controls only for age. The database is then used to provide a more reliable means of making projections of future births.

Below-replacement Fertility in Australia and Other Developed Countries
John Caldwell
This ARC funded project builds on previous work on the causes of low human fertility in industrialized countries. The first part of the work and the socioeconomic and demographic influences on all the high income countries since 1960 is complete and the comparison with Australia is continuing.

The Social Role of Religions in Australia
James Jupp
Funded by the ARC.

Forecasting

Stochastic Demographic Forecasting
Heather Booth, Rob Hyndman (Monash University), Leonie Tickle (Macquarie University)
Along with extensive reviews of demographic forecasting methods, comparative research on methods for modelling and forecasting mortality informs forecast reliability and provides improved forecasts for Australia. A preferred method uses functional data modelling. This method is applied to mortality, fertility and net migration, and the forecast components are combined in stochastic population forecasting. Applications include Australia, Sweden, France and the USA. Additional applications use multistate models of sections of the population such as the elderly.

Australian Social and Political Observatory (AuSPO)

AuSPO home page

Australian Survey of Social Attitudes (AuSSA), incorporating
International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) and World Values Survey (WVS)
Timothy Phillips, Ann Evans, Deborah Mitchell
The Australian Survey of Social Attitudes is a general social survey of the Australian population. It  is comprised of a mix of continuing and new questions. This reflects a concern with capturing how Australian social attitudes are changing over time, as well as tapping into beliefs about new and emergent social issues. The survey has been running on a biennial cycle since 2003. Australia also incorporates ISSP and WVS, two established international social surveys that currently run in some 39 and 80 countries respectively. In 2007 the AuSSA survey includes two modules from ISSP (role of government, leisure).

Australia's involvement in all three surveys is funded by ASCPRI. AuSSA also receives supplementary funding from allied researchers, who buy modules of questions for inclusion in the discretionary section of the questionnaire.

Ageing and Longevity

Working Longer: Policy Reforms and Practice Innovations
Peter McDonald, Jeromey Temple, Ching Choi, John Piggott (University of New South Wales), Alan Woodland (University of Sydney), Philip Bohle (University of New South Wales)
This project will forecast demographic and health transition in Australia and develop capacity to analyze the likely economic and workplace adjustments that population ageing will generate. It will examine the extent to which "working longer" is an appropriate response to this transition, and analyze how the labour market for older workers might evolve, taking account of individual circumstances (health, financial status, dependent care) and institutional practices (age discrimination, employment conditions, work organization), as well as regulatory and policy impacts. This project is funded by NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well Ageing Productively.

DYNOPTA: Learning How to Age Well from Longitudinal Studies on Ageing
Heather Booth, Zhongwei Zhao, Kaarin Anstey (ANU) et al.
This project pools data from 9 existing Australian longitudinal studies on ageing covering about 20 years of data. The analysis will inform understanding of demographic processes in later life (ages 45+). Derived transition rates will be used in microsimulation modelling of the elderly population over the next 20 years. This project also analyses and models health states (i.e., cognitive decline and dementia, sensory disability, mental health problems and physical impairments/disability); these will be analysed in relation to demographic variables both as independent and dependent variables and incorporated in the microsimulation. This is a collaborative project with some 20 researchers at ANU and other universities with funding from NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well Ageing Productively.

International Migration

Skilled Temporary Migration to Australia
Siew-Ean Khoo, Peter McDonald, Graeme Hugo (University of Adelaide)
This project examines the factors motivating the sponsorship and temporary migration of skilled workers to Australia; the characteristics and views about the temporary business visa program of employers who have sponsored skilled workers; and the labour market experiences and residential intentions of the temporary business visa holders. The project was funded by an ARC Linkage Grant with the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs as the industry research partner.

Immigrant Settlement
Siew-Ean Khoo
This project examines aspects of the settlement process of immigrants to Australia and their children. Previous work has included the development of settlement indicators and benchmarks for the Department of Immigration, studies of the socioeconomic outcomes of the second generation; and an ARC funded project on public policy and immigrant settlement based on data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia (LSIA). Current work will focus on analysis of the 2006 Australian Census data on the social and economic outcomes of immigrants and the second generation.

Intermarriage in Australia: Trends and Implications
Siew-Ean Khoo and Bob Birrell (Monash University)
The study uses data from the 2006 census and earlier censuses to examine trends in the intermarriage rate in Australia. It examines the level of intermarriage for first, second and third-plus generation Australians by birthplace, ancestry and religion and the rate of intermarriage between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians. The study will also analyse the propensity of persons of particular ancestries, religions and birthplaces to intermarry by the socio-economic characteristics of the partners, such as level of education and income. The project is part of the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 Australian Census Analytic Program.

Family Formation Patterns of Immigrants in Canada and Australia
Ann Evans, Tom LeGrand (University of Montreal), Siew-Ean Khoo, Peter McDonald
This comparative research project uses Australian and Canadian census data to examine family formation patterns by ethnicity and generation in the two countries, with a focus on the living arrangements and partnering patterns of young adults. The project is funded by an ARC Linkage International Project grant.