DEMO8080  
Demographic Forecasting and Projections

Co-ordinator - Dr Heather Booth

6 units
Not offered in 2009

Prerequisites: DEMO8007 Statistics for Social Scientists, at Distinction level or higher
DEMO8008 Principles of Population Analysis, at Distinction level or higher.

Note: students not enrolled in the Master of Social Research or the Graduate Certificate in Social Research require permission of the Masters Coordinator, Dr Robert Ackland, to enrol in this course.  Please contact him on adsri.study@anu.edu.au.

Syllabus

Population projection is an important demographic tool. Both traditional and stochastic approaches are covered. The cohort-component method of population projection is reviewed, including added detail such as labour force status. There are three approaches to determining the projection input in terms of future mortality, fertility and migration: these approaches can be characterised as expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Traditional methods use expectation or expert opinion, based on demographic and other considerations. Students will formulate a complete population projection of this type, using Excel. Recent methods use extrapolation often incorporating time series methods. Extrapolative methods are reviewed in detail. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method of mortality forecasting is studied, and students will formulate a projection using this method (in Excel). Forecasts based on explanation are also discussed. Students will be assessed on the basis of assignments demonstrating the application of methods using data from a country of their choice.